The week of 29 June – 5 July 2026

Track strike tempo, frontline pressure, and infrastructure targeting for the regional edition.

• Change in Russian missile and drone strike tempo against Ukrainian cities week over week
• Frontline movement on the contested axes reported by either side
• Shift in strike targeting toward energy, transport, or defense-industrial infrastructure

Watch for regulatory approvals of the placement, crude feedstock supply agreements between Dangote and NNPCL, and government statements on downstream deregulation linked to refinery ramp-up.

• SEC Nigeria approval or conditions placed on the $2 billion share placement
• NNPCL crude oil supply agreements or disputes with Dangote Refinery reported publicly
• Nigerian government fuel pricing or subsidy policy adjustments citing domestic refining output

Monitor Togolese government compliance statements or rejection of the ruling, ECOWAS member state responses, and whether the ruling is cited in ongoing constitutional debates in other regional states.

• Togolese government formal response accepting or rejecting the ECOWAS Court ruling
• ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State meeting agenda items addressing Togo compliance
• Opposition or civil society movements in neighboring states citing the ruling in domestic campaigns

Monitor whether arrests extend further into parliamentary and militia-affiliated networks, whether detainees are processed through civilian courts or military tribunals, and how Iran-aligned factions respond to targeting of their political allies.

• Additional sitting legislators or senior officials detained under anti-corruption authority
• Deployment of counterterrorism or Iraqi National Security Service assets in Baghdad political districts
• Statements or counter-mobilisation from Shia political blocs or Iran-linked factions in response to arrests

Track Kenya National Commission on Human Rights or civil society documentation of disappearances, government responses to international pressure on the pattern, and the status of the US Ebola facility dispute.

• Kenya DPP or IPOA investigations opened into reported enforced disappearances
• US Embassy Nairobi statements or Congressional correspondence on the Ebola centre protests and crackdowns
• Kenyan civil society or opposition formal complaints filed with the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights

Monitor troop deployment announcements in Northwest and North-Central states, civilian displacement figures, and whether armed group activity intensifies near election-related gatherings or party primaries.

• Nigerian military operational communiqués reporting engagements in Katsina, Zamfara, or Benue states
• State government declarations of emergency or curfews in affected local government areas
• Reports of electoral officials or candidates targeted by armed actors in pre-election states

Track official casualty figures and rescue operations from the Lagos collapse, Lagos State Building Control Agency enforcement actions, and whether federal or state legislative responses to recurring collapses are tabled.

• Lagos State Building Control Agency enforcement notices or demolition orders issued following the collapse
• National Emergency Management Agency situation reports on casualties and response operations
• Nigerian Senate or House of Representatives motions on building code enforcement following the incident